If we said there was a 70 percent chance a candidate would win a race, did that actually happen 70 percent of the time? But you can form your own by listening and learning (and learning how to listen). They also scrutinize a new survey that suggests most Americans think "The West Wing" and other political TV shows are reflective of how politics works. Happy holidays! They also continue to track the types of candidates former President Trump has endorsed in the 2022 Republican primaries. In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss what's behind the recent movement in the forecast and answer questions from listeners. . Lastly, they ask whether a recent survey of Americans attitudes about secession is a good or bad use of polling. They also preview next week's mayoral election in Chicago and ask whether a new poll of Arizona's 2024 Senate race is actually telling us anything useful. Galen Druke and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux discuss the messages that Senators sent and whether we were able to glean anything about what kind of Justice Jackson would be. They also analyze a new poll from the University of New Hampshire that shows the states likely GOP primary voters favoring Florida Gov. Feb. 25, 2021. info. Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? Science reporter Maggie Koerth also joins to talk about shifting attitudes on climate change among Republicans. Zach and ESPN's Michael Schwartz break down the red-hot Suns ahead of their showdown with the Warriors, then ESPN's Dave McMenamin checks in on the Lakers -- plus . The crew discusses why the number of independents has been growing and what it means for American politics. Galen speaks with reporter Kaleigh Rogers about how candidates who denied the legitimacy of the 2020 election did in the midterms and what the future of election denialism looks like. Overall, more moderate candidates were able to win against challengers from the Right and Left flank of both parties, although there was a sizable protest vote in some instances. The conventional wisdom is that if former President Trump wants the Republican presidential nomination in 2024, it's his. Americans Like Bidens Student Debt Forgiveness Plan. The crew discusses how Bidens approval rating may impact the midterm election, whether tracking Google search terms over time is a better barometer than traditional polling, and how Black voters are changing the political landscape of Georgia. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. Samuel Charap is a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation and author of the book Everyone Loses: The Ukraine Crisis and the Ruinous Contest for Post-Soviet Eurasia. What to do about George Santos | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast In Part 2 of this podcast, the crew asks why House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has declined to call Rep. George Santos to resign and considers a poll showing that 60% of his district's voters want him to. Galen and Nate discuss the state of uncalled races, what let to a good night for Democrats and answer listener questions. Election Day in Georgia is just a week away, so the crew shook off their turkey hangover to talk about what to expect in Georgias second Senate runoff in two years. Politics Podcast: Why The Federal Reserve's Power Is 'Limitless', Politics Podcast: How The War In Ukraine Could Go Nuclear, Politics Podcast: Some Republicans Are Souring On Aid To Ukraine. This installment of the podcast explores the role that the Black church plays in American politics, through initiatives like "souls to the polls" and beyond. They also ask whether the Republican Party can coalesce around an alternative to former President Donald Trump and whether President Bidens recent dismissal of the polls is a good or bad use of polling. The book is the first big reported account of the 2020 campaign in its entirety and is written by Jonathan Allen, senior political analyst with NBC News, and Amie Parnes, senior correspondent for The Hill. About 32 million Americans get summoned for jury duty each year. They also ask whether a new poll showing Biden's approval rating at just 33 percent deserves all the attention it's been getting. And if partisan loyalists were to make their way onto the Fed board, that degree of power could be abused. This week Nikki Haley became the first major candidate to challenge former President Donald Trump in the 2024 Republican presidential primary. 01:00 PM. They also break down how candidate misconduct is generally factored into the FiveThirtyEight model. NEW TOWN . They also debate how reliable exit polls are in determining what motivates voters and consider how Democrats were able to overcome intra-party disagreements to pass a $1 trillion infrastructure bill. The crew discusses the politically thorny issue of mental acuity in an increasingly elderly U.S. government, and what Americans think about age limits for public office. FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast | Free Listening on Podbean App FiveThirtyEight Politics https://feeds.megaphone.fm/ESP8794877317 Follow Share 13.5k Followers 200 Episodes Category: Politics Last Update: 2023-02-21 Claim Ownership The crew discusses what her path to the nomination could look like, given that Trump and Florida Gov. Transcript: Ezra Klein Interviews Ta-Nehisi Coates and Nikole Hannah-Jones July 30, 2021 Every Tuesday and Friday, Ezra Klein invites you into a conversation about something that matters, like. Max Fisher, author of the new book, "The Chaos Machine: The Inside Story of How Social Media Rewired Our Minds and Our World," speaks with Galen about the impacts of social media on politics globally and in the U.S. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. Galen and Nate discuss the reasons for Republicans' improvement in the forecast. gold rush supreme second chance winners. Raffensperger's new book is called Integrity Counts.". MANAGER'S SALARY. They also check in on the upcoming Virginia governors race and discuss a FiveThirtyEight report about how Congress may have inadvertently legalized THC -- the main psychoactive compound in marijuana. Our tool analyzes your audio using Google voice recognition. Politics Podcast: American Opinion Of China Has Plummeted, Politics Podcast: Biden's Second State Of The Union Was His First Campaign Speech, Politics Podcast: How Our 2022 Forecasts Actually Did, Politics Podcast: The Politics Of Loneliness, Politics Podcast: The Elections Happening In 2023. FiveThirtyEight Politics The Gerrymandering Project: California . Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. The crew hosts its first-ever 2024 Republican primary draft (they plan to follow up next week with a 2024 Democratic primary draft). The crew debates whether a recent Gallup poll showing that more Americans identify with the GOP than the Democratic Party is a "good or bad use of polling." We continue our conversation about challenges to democracy in America by talking with Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. If Europe, and of the shop leave us a rating or review in the Apple podcast store when you rating. MAJORITY 255 REP SEATS 240 225 225 240 255 DEM SEATS 84 in 100 84 in 100 Republicans win Republicans win 16 in 100 16 in 100 . The crew asks whether Biden's approval rating could be boosted by the American Rescue Plan and how popular he'd have to be to avoid a backlash at the midterms. The Supreme Court heard oral arguments on Wednesday in one of the highest profile cases of the term. The crew reacts to Senator Raphael Warnock's win in the Georgia Senate runoff. The Supreme Court is probably the most recognizable example, but its not the only one. The crew tries to unpack whats driving Democrats legislative decisions and who will have to compromise to pass the party's agenda. As the 2022 primaries begin in earnest and potential presidential candidates look ahead to 2024, the fight over the future of the political right is underway. This is the first episode. The podcast turns its focus abroad, to Canada and Germany, to see how other democracies' electoral systems work and what cleavages their politics are facing. Transcripts by Erin Wade. From host Jody Avirgan (30 for 30, FiveThirtyEight, Radiotopia) and the TED Audio Collective, Good Sport is your guide through an array of stadiums, pitches, pools and slopes that shed a light on the ups and downs of being human. They also rank the Senate races that will be most important in determining which party controls the Senate next year. History professor Yohuru Williams speaks with Galen Druke about how the protest movement sparked by George Floyd's murder compares with past social justice movements. Legal reporter Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux speaks with Galen Druke about the Justices' arguments for overturning Roe v. Wade, where the legal debate goes next and how this contrasts and complements American opinion on abortion. Tune in on your preferred podcast platform! They also try to get to the bottom of whether Americans support the Parental Rights In Education Bill -- or what its critics call the Dont Say Gay Bill -- which Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signed into law last week. A message from Martine. This sample of 100 outcomes gives you an idea of the range of scenarios the model considers possible. In this live taping of Model Talk in Washington, D.C., Nate and Galen break down the current forecasts for the Senate, House and gubernatorial races. Why Valentina Shevchenko Is A Huge Favorite And Jon Jones Isn't At UFC 285,A pair of championships are on the line at UFC 285 in Las Vegas Saturday night, and both title bouts offer a study in contrasts. The crew looks at how some of the most competitive primaries in 2022 are shaping up. They also review a new report from the American Association of Public Opinion Research on why election polls had a historically large error in 2020. But some Republicans are still jockeying for position to be the next leader of the party, the most prominent of which may be Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Each week, host Jody Avirgan brings you stories and interviews about how data is changing our lives. And what does Floridas new voting law tell us about the GOPs efforts to change the way Americans vote, and the partys larger motivations? The team looks at the popularity of the Democrats' COVID relief plan and how both Democrats and Republicans are thinking about its provisions. The board of directors voted Friday to accept the resignation of David Held, effective June 1, and will then offer him the same job on . The idea of the celebrity politician isnt going away just because former President Trump is out of office. Since then, the FiveThirtyEight blog has covered a broad spectrum of subjects including politics, sports, science, economics, and popular culture. It's easy. With midterm elections in the rearview mirror, Galen and Nate open up the mail bag to answer lingering questions about the results. As Congress considers legislation that would decriminalize marijuana and end the sentencing disparity for crack and cocaine offenses, Galen Druke speaks with FiveThirtyEight contributor Lester Black about what Americans think should be done about drugs and how politicians are responding. So, the usual. You can't imitate a worldview. Texas has been in a dire situation this week. And they try to guess what Americans think about love and relationships in a Valentine's Day-themed game. In the 2020 election cycle, Georgia found itself at the center of the American political universe. Nate Cohn, the chief political analyst at The New York Times, joins the crew to discuss the results of the latest Times/Siena College midterm polling. LS 81 Global Rank TOP 0.01% ABOUT THIS PODCAST Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week. We hear from two people involved in the progressive movement in New York City about their thoughts on whats happening in the race and how progressivism is shaping politics more broadly. He is now facing a primary from Congressman Jody Hice, whom Trump has endorsed, in his 2022 re-election bid. fivethirtyeight podcast transcripts. 71 Episodes Share Follow Seasons About 38 minutes | Feb 16, 2023 The Hero Who Rode His Segway Off a Cliff Steve Jobs called It "the most amazing piece of technology since the PC." According to Jeff Bezos It was not only "revolutionary," but infinitely commercial. FiveThirtyEight Politics ABC News (US) Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week. The FiveThirtyEight 2022 midterms forecast is live, and it shows that Republicans are strong favorites to win the House while the Senate is a toss up between the two parties. Their recent data-driven post-mortem of the Latino vote in 2020 looks at which voters were likeliest to favor Trump and offers some hypotheses as to why. Ron DeSantis are the only candidates who currently have sizable support in national polls. They also discuss the latest developments in the current round of redistricting. The crew discusses how Americans are feeling about COVID-19 and what types of restrictions they do and don't support after almost two years. 30, 2021 How The CDC's Blindspots Complicated The Fight Against COVID-19 By Maggie Koerth and Sinduja Srinivasan Filed under Podcast-19 Jun. The posting for the podcast's freelance audio editor position can be found here. Democrat Melanie Stansbury won a special election in New Mexico's first congressional district by a 25-point margin last Tuesday, performing better than Democrats did in the district in 2020. The crew discusses Manchins rationale and where Democrats might go from here. James Acton is a physicist and co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Millions of people were without power or heat, and in some cases water, in freezing cold temperatures for days because of severe blackouts. The crew discusses potential sticking points in the Democrats' infrastructure plan and debates whether it should be considered bipartisan if a sizable portion of Republican voters support it, but Republican lawmakers do not. All rights reserved. The crew discusses the arguments Biden laid out and where he stands with American voters two years into his presidency. In the first "Model Talk" episode of the 2022 midterms cycle, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the factors behind that forecast. Also, CalMatters Politics reporter Laurel Rosenhall and political analyst Paul Mitchell join to discuss the status of the California gubernatorial recall election. Dec. 7, 2017 | Apple Podcasts | ESPN App | RSS 03 / Black Representation In North Carolina The debate over how districts should be drawn to ensure that minority voters are represented in Congress. Sept. 25, 2014. negro-leagues-player- ratings. As we discussed earlier this week, House Democrats plan on passing a one point nine trillion dollar American rescue plan by the end of the week. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. According to a recent Marist poll, inflation is now Americans leading economic concern. Earlier this month, the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) released the first part of its Sixth Assessment Report on the state of climate change globally. The crew discusses what high gas prices have meant for politics historically and outline the debates in Washington over how to bring those prices down. The crew breaks down Rep. Liz Cheney's loss, what comes next, and who's currently up and down in Alaska. send a tweet. The crew discusses how a bipartisan gun control deal was reached and if this unwritten legislation could be passed by the end of the year. 04:58 PM. The crew talks about where Americans stand on mitigation efforts, how politicians are responding, and what public health experts are saying about the current state of the pandemic. In this installment, Robert Crews, a History professor from Stanford University, joins to reflect on the history of the Taliban and the current political landscape in Afghanistan. Then the team debates if a surge of women registering to vote in June could be linked to the Supreme Courts recent abortion decision. heritage commons university of utah. Transcript for What if America had a lot more political parties? This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Galen Druke discusses that question with pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson and writers Ramesh Ponnuru and Henry Olsen, who have all spent their careers in Republican politics and conservative thought. Tensions between the U.S. and China have grown in recent years and, in this installment, the crew looks at changing public opinion of China and how it could shape American politics. This research library service enables you to: Search more than 2,489,000 U.S. broadcasts using closed captioning; Borrow broadcasts on DVDs; View and Cite short streamed clips; Compare and Contrast perspectives across networks, stations and time; and Place video quotes within your commentary. The results are mixed in terms of which factions of both parties performed well and the marquee Republican Senate primary race in Pennsylvania is still close to call and could remain that way for days. What do we know, how confidently do we know it and what do we know we dont know? The team also looks at how debates about "Critical Race Theory" entered the culture wars, particularly in schools and state legislatures. The crew reacts to the results in Tuesdays primaries in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Idaho, Kentucky and Oregon. On Thursday, the Supreme Court wrapped up its first term with a 6-3 conservative majority on the bench. I'm Galen Truk. Tucker Carlson Has Exclusive Access To Jan. 6th Security Tapes. They also review Democrats agenda for the current lame duck session in Congress and hold their first post-midterm 2024 Democratic primary draft. The crew debates whether a poll asking Americans which animals they could take on is a fight is a "good or bad use of polling." Editor Chadwick Matlin turns the tables on Galen Druke and asks him questions about what hes learned from covering the 2022 election and his time as host of the podcast. Crime analyst Jeff Asher discussed what those numbers can -- and can't -- tell us, and explains the challenges in collecting crime data. They also debate whether a poll asking Americans to choose what they think is the best decade of their lives is a good or bad use of polling. Thirty-six governors seats are up for election this fall and the crew looks at some where full control of state government might be decided by the governors race. Institutions are the rules of the game of our societies that direct our everyday lives in fundamental ways. It's a big election week for liberal democracies. Its October and the surprises are rolling in. The crew breaks down notable primary races in Minnesota, Vermont and Wisconsin. Hours before we freeze the FiveThirtyEight midterm forecast tonight, it shows that Republicans are in a dead heat for the Senate and are favored to win the House. The crew asks whether comparisons to former President Donald Trump's own classified document scandal are apt. These articles reported facts without employing biased word choice, slant, or other types of media bias . They also discuss how the country has changed demographically and geographically over the past decade, based on the newly released 2020 census data. They also analyze the court's other recent rulings on gun restrictions and school prayer and preview some of Tuesday's biggest primary elections. Tester faces a tough bid, but don't sleep on Brown being the weaker of the two. The crew breaks down the results of the June 7 primaries. They also discuss the politics of reparations after a Democratic proposal in the House to study reparations for slavery was voted out of committee for the first time since it was introduced in Congress in 1989. Galen speaks with James Acton, the co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, about how leaders and experts weigh the risks of a nuclear conflict. 91.5 Chapel Hill 88.9 Manteo 90.9 Rocky Mount 91.1 Welcome 91.9 Fayetteville 90.5 Buxton 94.1 Lumberton 99.9 Southern Pines Nate Silver's. People are angry and politicians are pointing fingers. We speak with the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, Patrick Murray, who wrote an article titled I blew it. But that doesnt stop us from talking about what we do know: that Republicans didnt make major gains in the Senate, and that the polls were pretty good this cycle. Schwartz and McMenamin: 11/29/21. The crew talks about what led to Cuomo's resignation, how New Yorkers feel about his replacement, and what this means for New Yorks 2022 Democratic primary race for governor. Preview of Spotify. The team assesses New York Governor Andrew Cuomo's political future after a report from the New York Attorney General concluded that he sexually harassed 11 women. In this show, Jody Avirgan, Nicole Hemmer and Kellie Carter Jackson (and guests) take one moment, big or small, from that day in U.S. political history and explore how it might inform our present -- all in about fifteen minutes. Reporter Greg Bluestein explains how it happened in his new book, Flipped: How Georgia Turned Purple and Broke the Monopoly on Republican Power, and discusses with Galen what it means for 2022 and beyond. . Democrat and former state Rep. Mary Peltola won Alaska's special congressional election on Wednesday, defeating Republicans Sarah Palin and Nick Begich III. The U.S. shot down at least three unidentified flying objects over the weekend. They play a game of "Guess What Americans Think," in which the panelists have to guess Americans' opinions on a wide variety of topics, including Elon Musk, inflation and Britney Spears. They also take a look at the endorsements former President Trump has made in 2022 congressional primaries and discuss why worries about inflation can be so politically potent. They also ask whether it's too early to conclude that the leak of a draft Supreme Court opinion overturning Roe has had little impact on the political environment. They also debate whether the AARP is correct in assessing that women voters over the age of 50 are likely to decide the outcome of the 2022 midterms. Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss why live caller surveys are no longer the gold standard in polling and what it means for the future of the industry. Micah Cohen and Kaleigh Rogers also join to talk about why Republicans are not backing a bipartisan commission to investigate the January 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol. The crew discusses which indicators are worth watching to get a sense for how the parties will perform in the 2022 elections. And lastly, they check-in on the gubernatorial recall efforts in California that are very likely to result in a recall election for Governor Gavin Newsom. 10 Wednesday AM Reads. Where the hot sports takes of the week meet the numbers that prove them right or tear them down. Political scientists Yanna Krupnikov and John Barry Ryan suggest that focusing only on the Left/Right divide in American politics is reductive. Serial's new true-crime podcast, The Coldest Case in Laramie, revisits a 1985 murder. FiveThirtyEight Politics on Apple Podcasts 200 episodes FiveThirtyEight Politics ABC News News 4.5 19.2K Ratings FEB 21, 2023 What We Know About Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection What We Know About Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection It's a busy week! The crew dives into four major investigations into former president Donald Trumps actions, the legal consequences he could be facing, and how the American public is reacting. The cofounders of Equis Research -- a political data firm focused on Latino voters -- share their research on why that swing happened. In this installment of Model Talk on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke are joined by two climate modelers and authors of the latest IPCC report, Friederike Otto and Baylor Fox-Kemper. Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection Don't Look Great. They also discuss the conditions that would have to be present in order for a third party to actually be viable in the American political system. The U.S. House Districts To Watch In 2022: 10/17/22 The team debates if Americans. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. The episode tracks the 14 days from the murder of the president to when the Johnsons move into the White House, days filled with tragic ceremony and heartfelt moments of solidarity between Jackie Kennedy and Lady Bird. The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see which party wins the House most often. They also discuss how incumbents have been faring overall in this midterms primaries. As of Monday, all U.S. troops have withdrawn from Afghanistan following a chaotic evacuation from the country. Hosts of the British Talking Politics podcast, David Runciman and Helen Thompson, discuss why the British public and some members of the Conservative Party have soured on Johnson in a way that Republicans never soured on President Trump, despite his numerous scandals. With the data from the most recent term in hand, the crew discusses how far to the right the Supreme Court has gone. robert kraft granddaughter. The crew discusses why some Republican candidates are changing their tune about the legitimacy of the 2020 election depending on the situation. According to a new poll from the Wall Street Journal, Hispanic voters are now split evenly between the Democratic and Republican parties, just one year after 60 percent voted for Democratic House candidates. By doing so we are missing another important divide, one that may actually run counter to the idea that America is hopelessly conflicted between red and blue. With one week left until Election Day, the crew analyzes some of the high-profile races and which issues Americans care about most as they enter the voting booth. June 2, 2016. File Upload. They also have a good or bad use of polling on the topic of death and consider whether a recent Facebook hearing will lead to new regulations for the monolithic technology company. Politics Podcast: Could Nikki Haley Actually Win The GOP Nomination?